Why economists worship a boring weekly number
Initial unemployment claims is the fastest, cleanest recession signal in the economic data — if you know what it's actually measuring.
Amara Okonkwo · June 25, 2026
Economic coverage written from the employee and employer perspective at once. Topics include wage growth, hiring and layoff data, labor supply in particular trades, and household costs that determine whether workers can afford to move jobs. Each piece connects a national number to a decision being made inside an ordinary company.
Economic coverage written from the employee and employer perspective at once. Topics include wage growth, hiring and layoff data, labor supply in particular trades, and household costs that determine whether workers can afford to move jobs. Each piece connects a national number to a decision being made inside an ordinary company.
Initial unemployment claims is the fastest, cleanest recession signal in the economic data — if you know what it's actually measuring.
Amara Okonkwo · June 25, 2026
The 2025 tariff wave showed up in washing machines, tools, and toys faster than in headline inflation. The pass-through was real; the timing was the surprise.
Lena Fischer · June 3, 2026
Labor productivity grew faster after the pandemic than in the decade before it. The explanations range from remote work to compositional churn, and the answer is probably all of them.
Amara Okonkwo · May 11, 2026
The pandemic's great migration reshuffled workers toward cheap housing; the rate reset of 2023-2025 froze them there — and rewired labor markets permanently.
Lena Fischer · April 18, 2026
The headline growth number is the least useful thing in the release. Here's the order to read it in — and the traps built into every quarter.
Lena Fischer · March 26, 2026